Arrowhead Economic Analysis
Economic Analysis of New Mexico’s Comprehensive Energy Transition Strategy
Arrowhead Center at New Mexico State University and the Center for Border Economic Development prepared an economic analysis of New Mexico’s Comprehensive Energy Transition Strategy (CETS) to estimate the incremental economic effects of pursuing greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets beyond current statutory requirements. State energy policy is anchored by the Energy Transition Act of 2019 and Executive Order 2019-003.
The Energy Transition Act of 2019 establishes binding requirements for decarbonizing the electric power sector, including a transition to 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045 for investor-owned utilities and 2050 for cooperatives. Executive Order 2019-003 sets economy-wide GHG reduction targets—45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050—extending beyond the electricity generation sector to other areas of the economy.
This analysis examines the economic impact of Executive Order 2019-003 on the New Mexico economy using a comparative scenario analysis. The Energy Transition Act, which is established law, serves as the base case, while Executive Order 2019-003 serves as the policy scenario. Results are reported as the incremental economic effects of expanding emissions reductions beyond the electric sector and accelerating decarbonization efforts relative to the Energy Transition Act baseline.